The first trailer for season seven of AMC’s “The Walking Dead” is a punishing three-minute peek into what promises to be the show’s grimmest year yet. Set to premiere Oct. 23, the new season picks up with the death of what creator Robert Kirkman calls a beloved character.

Season six ended with new heavy Negan bludgeoning one of our heroes with a bat. Who was killed will be revealed in the premiere episode. Meanwhile, fans have been agonizing over who is biting the dust: Rick, Carl, Michonne, Daryl, Abraham, Sasha, Eugene, Rosita, Aaron, Maggie, or Glenn.

We too have been tormented by this turn of events and figured we’d break down the choices and share our pick with you (no comic spoilers). But, first, lets watch the trailer:

Okay, the death must be of a beloved character. That eliminates Aaron, Rosita, and Sasha. Aaron is likable, but being gay is so far his only distinguishable trait. Rosita is hot and has some fire in her, but that’s about it. Even Abraham ditches her sexy ass. As for Sasha, she has suffered a lot of loss and her story arch appears to be done, but her death just wouldn’t be meaty.

Abraham and Eugene have crossed over to beloved territory. The duo are comedy gold together and apart. Abraham is brave, forthcoming, and outspoken with a ridiculous knack for coining new, colorful phrases (dolphin-smooth, “Who’s Deanna?”). Eugene is a redeemed coward and liar, whose efforts to do right really pulled the heartstrings this season.

Abraham and Eugene are both strong possibilities. Either of their deaths would bum viewers out… but, let’s face it, that would be safe. Sad, but safe. The show has promised a big death. That means it has to be someone from the inner circle – our original crew: Rick, Carl, Daryl, Michonne, Maggie, Glenn.

Rick or Carl … nope. Sure, Rick has been a bit unhinged and his idea to attack Negan’s crew got them in this mess, but this moment will serve to ground him again. If Carl were killed, Rick would go bonkers and get himself killed too. That’d be two dead characters. Keeping Carl alive is also a good way for Negan to keep Rick under his control.

Daryl? That would upset a lot of women. AMC has already given actor Norman Reedus a new show (“Ride”). Is that consolation for a job well done? Nah. Daryl has unresolved business with Dwight, the thieving, ungrateful asshole who stole his ride and weapon and shot him last season.

Michonne? Her romance with Rick puts her in danger – all of Rick’s loves have so far met gruesome ends. Michonne has also come back from the personal hell of isolation she had put herself through after being harden by the zombie apocalypse. She would die redeemed. But, no. Negan likes to keep the strong to produce for him. That could save Michonne, Rick, Daryl, Abraham, Sasha, and possibly Glenn.

So… Glenn. He has cheated death numerous times, including an especially controversial near-miss this past season that producers milked, consequentially upsetting fans who felt it was a major cheat despite no one ever wanting Glenn dead. Most people, both fans of the show and comics, have marked Glenn for death, but that alone could be why he survives… again! But, what about Glenn’s gorgeous wife Maggie?

Yup. She’s dead meatballs. Maggie is ill and in a very weakened state. She is why Rick and the gang threw her in the RV and headed out to find a doctor (why not bring him to her, we don’t know). Negan doesn’t need the sick. Maggie’s death would kill Glenn in the worse way imaginable… on the inside. Glenn has been the show’s conscious even during the times Rick has gone mad. If Maggie and their unborn child dies, Glenn would be destroyed. It be worse for him than dying and it would totally rip our hearts out.

So, there you have it. Our pick to meet Negan’s bat, Lucille, is Maggie, the last of the Greene family.